STS Congenital Risk Model (2023 estimator)

STS Congenital Risk Model (2023 estimator) — explanation and clinical context
The STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database (CHSD) mortality risk approach stratifies operative risk primarily by procedure complexity (the STAT mortality category) and then adjusts for multiple patient-level factors (age group, weight/low birthweight, prior cardiothoracic operations, genetic/chromosomal abnormalities, non-cardiac congenital anomalies, multiple preoperative risk factors, and urgency/status) to produce an expected operative mortality for case-mix adjustment. The official STS CHSD logistic models (and the 2023 ACHD expansion for adults) are derived from very large registry harvests and are continuously updated; however, STS does not make the full model coefficients/intercept publicly distributable for general use. Therefore this tool provides a pragmatic estimator by mapping STAT category + age group to representative observed mortality ranges reported in STS public reporting and peer-reviewed CHSD analyses; it is intended to support clinical understanding and benchmarking rather than to replace the official, risk-adjusted STS estimates.

Reference: STS Public Reporting — Congenital Heart Surgery (STS CHSD) explainer and CHSD mortality risk model description; STS CHSD updates and peer-reviewed summaries including the 2023/2024 CHSD update and the 2023 STS ACHD model development publications.

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