BIOSTAT-CHF Mortality Risk (Approximation) Calculator
- BIOSTAT-CHF Mortality Risk: Explanation and Clinical Context
The BIOSTAT-CHF (A systems BIOlogy Study to Tailored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure) program developed and validated multivariable risk models for outcomes in heart failure using a large European cohort (index n≈2,516; validation n≈1,738).
The five strongest independent predictors of all-cause mortality were: older age, higher blood urea nitrogen (BUN), higher NT-proBNP, lower haemoglobin, and lack of beta-blocker prescription. These variables are easily obtainable in clinical practice and provide strong prognostic discrimination.
This calculator implements a simplified educational approximation using those predictors. For accurate, validated probability estimates, the original Cox model coefficients and baseline hazard from the BIOSTAT-CHF publication and supplementary data must be applied.
References:
Voors AA, Ouwerkerk W, Zannad F, van Veldhuisen DJ, et al. Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure. Eur J Heart Fail. 2017;19(5):627–634. DOI:10.1002/ejhf.785
Wehbe R, et al. Review and validation analyses referencing BIOSTAT-CHF mortality models.
Pure / Amsterdam UMC BIOSTAT-CHF analyses confirming principal predictors and biomarker associations.
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