General Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Scores

PREDICT-CVD Risk Calculator

Clinical calculation support · Verify results before clinical use

5-Year Cardiovascular Risk Assessment

Enter the patient's baseline characteristics and clinical risk factors.

—5-year risk

1. Model eligibility and demographics

The original PREDICT-1° model was derived in New Zealand primary-care patients aged 30–74 years without established CVD, heart failure, or substantial renal impairment.

Population

Sex used by the equation

Age (years)

Ethnicity

NZDep quintile

Smoking status

2. Clinical measurements

Use measured baseline values. The model uses systolic blood pressure and the total cholesterol-to-HDL cholesterol ratio.

Systolic blood pressure (mmHg)

Total cholesterol (mmol/L)

HDL cholesterol (mmol/L)

3. Medical history and current treatment

Select all applicable conditions and medications at the time of risk assessment.

Family history of premature cardiovascular disease Atrial fibrillation Diabetes mellitus Taking blood pressure-lowering medication Taking lipid-lowering medication Taking antiplatelet or anticoagulant medication

4. Exclusion criteria

The derivation cohort excluded people with prior CVD, congestive heart failure, or substantial renal impairment.

Established cardiovascular disease Heart failure eGFR below 30 mL/min/1.73 m² or diabetic overt nephropathy

—5-year CVD

Estimated absolute cardiovascular risk

Awaiting input

Complete the required fields and select Calculate Risk.

Model output

The calculator will display the estimated 5-year risk and the corresponding New Zealand risk category.

About the PREDICT-1° Equation

PREDICT-1° is a New Zealand-derived, sex-specific Cox proportional-hazards model estimating the 5-year risk of a first total cardiovascular disease event. It was derived from 401,752 primary-care patients aged 30–74 years without prior CVD, heart failure, or substantial renal impairment.

The composite outcome included hospitalisation or death from ischaemic heart disease (including angina), ischaemic or haemorrhagic cerebrovascular events (including transient ischaemic attacks), peripheral vascular disease, congestive heart failure, or other ischaemic cardiovascular deaths.

Predictors included

Age, sex-specific ethnicity coefficients, and NZDep quintile.
Smoking status, family history of premature CVD, atrial fibrillation, and diabetes.
Systolic blood pressure and total cholesterol-to-HDL cholesterol ratio.
Blood pressure-lowering, lipid-lowering, and antithrombotic medication use.
Prespecified interactions: age × diabetes, age × SBP, and BP-lowering medication × SBP.

Risk categories used in New Zealand

5-year risk	Category
<5%	Low risk
5% to 15%	Moderate risk
>15%	High risk

These categories reflect the New Zealand risk-management framework; they are not treatment instructions and should not be transferred uncritically to other populations.

References

Pylypchuk R, Wells S, Kerr A, et al. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in 400 000 primary care patients in New Zealand: a derivation and validation study. The Lancet. 2018;391(10133):1897–1907. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30664-0.

Chandel T, Miranda V, Lowe A, Lee TC. Zero End-Digit Preference in Blood Pressure and Implications for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction—A Study in New Zealand. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2024;13(22):6846. DOI: 10.3390/jcm13226846.

Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment (CVDRA) tool — official information on the 5-year risk service and intended population. Official resource.

Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management — current primary-care framework. Official resource.

Clinical disclaimer: This calculator implements the published New Zealand PREDICT-1° general-population equation. It is not the separate PREDICT-1° Diabetes equation. The model is specific to the New Zealand population and depends on NZDep quintile and the model's ethnicity categories. It has not been recalibrated or validated for Indonesia or other countries. Do not use it to make treatment decisions in populations for which calibration has not been established. It is not intended for patients with established CVD, heart failure, or substantial renal impairment. Interpret results alongside clinical judgement and current local guidelines.