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ARISTOTLE HF Subgroup Outcome Index (proxy – ABC-based)

  • Age (years)
  • History of heart failure
  • NT-proBNP (pg/mL)
  • hs-Troponin (ng/L)
  • GDF-15 (ng/L) — optional
  • ARISTOTLE HF Subgroup Outcome Index: Rationale and clinical context
    The original ARISTOTLE trial (apixaban vs warfarin) and its biomarker substudies showed that age, a clinical history of heart failure, and circulating biomarkers — notably NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin, and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) — were among the strongest predictors of death and heart-failure related events in patients with atrial fibrillation. The ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) risk framework was developed from ARISTOTLE data to quantify mortality risk in anticoagulated AF patients; this calculator implements a transparent proxy based on that approach to provide a relative HF-outcome index. For precise absolute risk estimates, one should use the original ABC equations or the published online ABC calculator (model coefficients/baseline hazard).

    Reference:
    Hijazi Z, et al. A biomarker-based risk score to predict death in patients with atrial fibrillation: the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) death risk score. (development from ARISTOTLE data).
    Also see ARISTOTLE biomarker analyses addressing heart-failure events and biomarker prognostic value.