Home › Cardiovascular Scores, Indexes, And Algorithms › PREDICT-HF Risk Calculator

PREDICT-HF Risk Calculator

  • Age (years)
  • Sex (1 = Male, 0 = Female)
  • Race/Ethnicity (0 = White, 1 = Black, 2 = Asian/Other)
  • Region (1 = Western Europe, 2 = Central Europe, 3 = Latin America, 4 = North America, 5 = Asia Pacific)
  • Heart Failure Duration > 5 years? (1 = Yes, 0 = No)
  • NYHA functional class (II = 2, III/IV = 3)
  • Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (LVEF, %)
  • Diabetes mellitus present? (1 = Yes, 0 = No)
  • Use of β-blocker at baseline? (1 = Yes, 0 = No)
  • NT-proBNP (pg/mL)
  • PREDICT-HF Risk Score: Explanation and Clinical Context
    The PREDICT-HF model (PARADIGM Risk of Events and Death in Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure) was derived in patients enrolled in the PARADIGM‑HF trial (n ≈ 8,011) with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and was subsequently validated in the ATMOSPHERE trial population and in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF).
    Key baseline predictors included age, sex, race/ethnicity, region of enrolment, longer heart failure duration, higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), presence of diabetes mellitus, baseline use of a β-blocker, and baseline NT-proBNP level — among others.
    In internal validation, the model achieved C-statistics (Harrell’s C) of ~0.74 at 1 year and ~0.71 at 2 years for the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization.
    Clinically, the score supports stratification of ambulatory HFrEF patients receiving contemporary evidence-based therapy. Patients identified at higher risk may benefit from more intensive monitoring, earlier consideration of novel therapies or devices, and closer follow-up.

    Reference:
    Simpson J, Jhund PS, Silva Cardoso J, et al. Prognostic models derived in PARADIGM-HF and validated in ATMOSPHERE and the Swedish Heart Failure Registry to predict mortality and morbidity in chronic heart failure. JAMA Cardiology. 2020;5(4):488-498. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0451.

Discussion

No discussions yet. Be the first to comment.

Report this Tool