TRACE Study – Post-MI Heart Failure Risk (TRACE-inspired) Calculator
- TRACE Study — Post-MI Heart Failure Risk (explanation and clinical context)
This calculator is TRACE-inspired: the original TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation (TRACE) was a randomized trial that enrolled patients with reduced left ventricular function soon after myocardial infarction and demonstrated morbidity and mortality benefits of long-term ACE inhibition (trandolapril) in that population. TRACE showed that LV systolic dysfunction after MI is a major determinant of later death and progression to severe heart failure; therefore LVEF, clinical heart failure at presentation (Killip class), age and markers of organ dysfunction (renal function) are consistently important predictors of subsequent heart failure. Because the TRACE publications did not provide a simple point-score (TRACE score) that can be directly encoded as a validated calculator, this tool implements an evidence-informed point scheme that aggregates commonly reported, high-impact predictors from TRACE and other post-MI prognostic studies. The output provides a broad, uncalibrated estimate of risk (Low / Moderate / High / Very high) to help identify patients who may benefit from closer follow-up and early initiation of guideline-directed therapies. This estimator is for educational and prototyping purposes only and has NOT been formally validated — it must not replace clinical judgment or validated risk models. For precise risk quantification, use locally validated calculators or published, externally validated prediction models and consider recalibration to your population.
Key references:
Køber L, Torp-Pedersen C, Carlsen JE, et al. A clinical trial of the angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor trandolapril in patients with left ventricular dysfunction after myocardial infarction. N Engl J Med. 1995;333(25):1670–1676. doi:10.1056/NEJM199512213332503.
Torp-Pedersen C, Køber L, Carlsen JE, et al. Effect of ACE inhibitor trandolapril on life expectancy in patients after myocardial infarction: extended follow-up of the TRACE population. Lancet. 1999.
Bahit MC, Fonarow GC. Post-myocardial infarction heart failure — review of incidence, mechanisms, and management. JACC Heart Fail. 2018;6(8):667–677.
Discussion
No discussions yet. Be the first to comment.