Metabolic And Cardiovascular Obesity Scores

UKPDS Risk Engine Calculator

Clinical calculation support · Verify results before clinical use

Clinical inputs

Enter the patient characteristics required by the published UKPDS 56 coronary heart disease equation.

The published equation uses age at diagnosis, not current age.
Used to extend the estimate across the duration of diabetes.
The derivation used mean values from the first two study years; current values may not be equivalent.
The published CHD equation includes an Afro-Caribbean term; Asian-Indian ethnicity was not an independent term in this equation.

About this estimate

The UKPDS Risk Engine is a diabetes-specific cardiovascular risk model developed from the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. The published UKPDS 56 equation estimates coronary heart disease risk in people with type 2 diabetes.

Model and implementation notes

  • This implementation uses a published UKPDS 56 CHD equation and a duration-based extension described in subsequent literature.
  • The derivation used selected baseline/early-study measures; substituting contemporary measurements may reduce comparability with the original model.
  • This page calculates CHD risk only. It does not calculate stroke risk, fatal/non-fatal event subdivisions, or 95% confidence intervals available in the official software.
  • Other ethnic groups and patients outside the model's derivation population may have uncertain calibration.

Variables included

VariableRole in this implementation
Age at diabetes diagnosisContinuous predictor in the published equation
SexFemale indicator in the published equation
SmokingCurrent smoking indicator
EthnicityAfro-Caribbean indicator; other groups require cautious interpretation
HbA1c, SBP, TC/HDL ratioContinuous predictors
Diabetes durationUsed in the duration-based risk extension

References

Stevens RJ, Kothari V, Adler AI, Stratton IM; UKPDS Group.The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56). Clinical Science. 2001;101(6):671–679. PMID: 11724655. DOI: 10.1042/CS20000335.
Lu SE, Beckles GL, Crosson JC, et al.Evaluation of risk equations for prediction of short-term coronary heart disease events in patients with long-standing type 2 diabetes: the TRIAD study. BMC Endocrine Disorders. 2012;12:12. DOI: 10.1186/1472-6823-12-12. Source for the published equation and duration extension shown here.
UKPDS Risk Engine — University of Oxford, Diabetes Trials Unit.Official software overview, scope, and conditions of use. Official download and licensing information.
Kothari V, Stevens RJ, Adler AI, et al.UKPDS 60: Risk of stroke in type 2 diabetes estimated by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Stroke. 2002;33:1776–1781. DOI: 10.1161/01.STR.0000020091.07144.C7. This stroke model is not implemented by this page.
Clinical disclaimer: For educational and clinician-support use only. This calculator is not the official UKPDS Risk Engine software and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment decisions. The original software has separate terms governing incorporation into other software; obtain appropriate permission before public or commercial distribution of a derivative implementation. Confirm model applicability and local licensing requirements before deployment.
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