TB Pericarditis Complication Risk Model (IMPI-based)
- TB Pericarditis Complication Risk Model: Explanation and Clinical Context
This calculator estimates a relative hazard index (RHI) for two major complications of tuberculous pericarditis—death and constrictive pericarditis—based on multivariable predictors from the IMPI program. In HIV-infected patients, higher NYHA class, hypotension, peripheral oedema, and lower weight increased mortality hazard. For constrictive pericarditis, tachycardia (>100 bpm) and oedema were risk factors, while female sex was protective. As baseline hazards were not published, the model provides relative (not absolute) risk estimation, assisting bedside stratification but not replacing guideline-based management. Integrate findings with echocardiography and clinical context.
References:
Gumedze F, et al. Findings from the IMPI trial: HIV alters presentation and reduces constriction incidence in TB pericarditis. South African Medical Journal. 2023;113(3b):1111–1116.
Mayosi BM, et al. Tuberculous Pericarditis—epidemiology, presentation, and outcomes. Circulation. 2005;112:3608–3616.
Naicker K, et al. Tuberculous pericardial disease: update on diagnosis and management. Cardiovasc Diagn Ther. 2020.
Kudaiberdiev T, et al. Predictors of tamponade and constriction in pericardial disease. Global Cardiol Sci Pract. 2016.
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