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Smoking Cessation Cardiac Event Reduction Model (Policy Impact)

  • Smoking Cessation Cardiac Event Reduction Model (Policy Impact)
  • Baseline annual ASCVD event risk (%) Use your preferred risk tool (e.g., SCORE2, PCE) for a current smoker with otherwise identical risk factors.
  • Smoking status
      
  • Pack-years Total lifetime exposure (packs/day × years). Heavy smoking is defined as ≥20 pack-years.
  • Years since quitting Required only if status is Former.
  • Population size for policy scenario (optional) Use to estimate annual events prevented in a program (leave blank for patient-level estimate).
  • Smoking Cessation Cardiac Event Reduction Model: Explanation and Clinical Context
     Smokers who quit experience a rapid decline in cardiovascular risk within the first few years, with heavy smokers (≥20 pack-years) achieving approximately a 39% lower risk of incident cardiovascular disease by 5 years compared with those who continue to smoke (hazard ratio ~0.61). Risk continues to decline more gradually over the following decade(s), approaching but not immediately equaling that of never smokers. The calculator operationalizes these findings by estimating a patient’s post-cessation annual event risk, absolute risk reduction, and—optionally—policy impact (events prevented per year) for a target population. Clinically, the earliest gains are meaningful: cessation after acute coronary events reduces reinfarction and mortality risk, and even at the population level, sustained abstinence programs can prevent substantial numbers of events within a year.

    References:
    Duncan MS, et al. JAMA. 2019;322(7):642-650. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.10298.
    Hayrumyan V, et al. Cardiol Ther. 2023;12:—.
    Nazir A, et al. J Clin Med. 2025;14(4):1388.
    Rahman M, et al. Curr Atheroscler Rep. 2025;—.
    Cho JH, et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(—):—.
    Wilson K, et al. JAMA Intern Med. 2000;160:—.

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